Stalemate Continues in Libya

With continued air strikes there seems to be little change in the conflict that is occurring in Libya. The rebel forces are calling for the British army to provide them with arms so that they may be more effective in thier battle against the Libyan army. Recently they have been given night vision goggles and body armor. The rebels believe that they are in dire need of deadly weapons.

The rebel leaders have been invited to Washington D.C. to meet with U.S. officials they have also been invited to London to set up diplomatic offices.

Recently a NATO air strike on the Bab al-Aziziya compound reportedly killed Col. Gadaffi’s son Saif al-Arab and three of Gadaffi’s grandchildren. According to a Libyan citizen there is wide spread skepticism that these deaths occurred. Some people contend that due tot he fact that no pictures were recovered of the people who were buried after the attacks. Skeptics also believe that there would be no way that all of the family would be in the same place at the same time in this time of turmoil.

The main concern of citizens in Tripoli is getting fuel for their cars. In some cases it can take three days to get five dollars worth of gas. People can pay $48 dollars and receive their ration in 24 hours. Many of the supermarkets do not have very much food on the shelves. This is cause for concern for many people living in Libya not only Tripoli.

There have also been reports of looting of foreign embassies in the Libyan capitol of Tripoli. It seems that the people of Libya are fed up with the state of affairs in their country.

I believe that it is important that something is done to stabilize the region. It seems that the NATO air strikes are not  as effective as they were initially thought to be. They have targeted communications and military leaders. This has not kept troops on the ground from causing large amounts of civilian casualties. The U.S. is running armored drones in an attempt to help the rebel forces.

The real targets in this situation are tanks and other forms of heavy artillery. The fact that the rebel forces are unable to defend against these weapons leads me to believe that they will need assistance in order to defeat Gadaffi’s army. In the next few weeks the rebels will need assistance and if it is not provided more loss of civilian life will be inevitable. I am not prescribing that we send in troops but if the west does not step up their assistance the rebels will have an insurmountable hurdle that will cause their demise. Unfortunately we have once again involved our military in a conflict that we are unwilling to commit to. I am not advising that we send in our troops but we need to finish what we started. If we are there to help the rebel groups in Libya we need to stop tip-toeing around. We need to provide the weapons that they need along with proper training to this untrained rebel group.

While it does not seem that the end is near my hope is that the killing of innocent people in Libya can be eliminated in the near future.

Protestors in Yemen Unite

The middle-eastern country of Yemen has cultivated a grass roots movement in an attempt to oust the current leader. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled Yemen since 1978. During this time he has been accused of atrocious crimes performed by his soldiers under his direction. There have been reports of soldiers using tear gas and smoke as well as beating and terrorizing protesters. This is coupled with accusations of government officials holding people for years without trial. These are serious accusations and if the protesters have their way the president will be brought up on charges when he leaves office.

President Saleh has agreed to step down in twenty-seven days as long as certain concessions are made. Saleh requires that his vice president, Abdu Rabu Manur Hadi, take power until elections can be planned and executed. Saleh also requires that he, his family, and government aides are granted immunity from prosecution. Saleh has agreed to this resolution which was recommended by the Gulf Cooperation Council. This counsel which is a group of countries that have trade agreement with each other and promotes cooperation among its member countries. The GCC consist of The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait. Yemen hopes to join the GCC in 2016 even though they do not have a coast along the Persian Gulf. This would allow then to increase their technology and bolster their economy with this type of strategic alliance.

While it seems that Saleh will step down he has made promises in the past to give up power and gone back on his word. It seems that the country has unified against him and I believe that he has lost the support of much of the Yemen population.

The protesters have taken to the streets and have formed a tent city in the capital of Sanaa. People from different regions and ethnic backgrounds have come together to discuss the future of the country. Women who previously were required to be inside by seven p.m. have been out during the night protesting the current government. This change shows that the customs and beliefs of a woman’s place in Yemeni society is beginning to change.

This uprising has cost over one-hundred lived and the hospitals in the center of the protests are being overwhelmed. It is imperative that the government agrees to hold elections in a fair and just manner. After thirty-three years it is time for Saleh to step down in order for the progression of government and politics to take place. The people of Yemen deserve to decide their leaders and the crimes that were committed against civilians should not go unpunished. Leaders should know that they are not above the law and that if they take the trust of their people for granted they will be punished.

I believe that Yemen will receive the elections that they so desperately want. The fact that the support for Saleh has diminished greatly will help them in their struggle. It is also great to see that the rights of women are being increased allowing the country to progress and hopefully allow them to become a more prosperous nation.

Ivory Coast Civil War Nears End.

The civil war that has been raging in The West African country of the Ivory Coast is nearing its end. Forces loyal to newly elected president Alassane Ouattara have converged on the presidential palace of Laurent Gbagbo, who will not relinquish presidential power. The now former president Gbagbo has caused the death and suffering of his people in what seems to have been an avoidable conflict in the region.

According to sources close to newly elected president Ouattara orders have been given to take Gbagbo alive. The new regime hopes to try Gbagbo and hold him accountable for his actions against his own people. This may not be possible as he has been unwilling to admit defeat and surrender. As this post is being written Ouattara forces have surrounded his compound and are attempting to extract Gbagbo. This has proven to be a difficult task with the former pesidend hiding out in a bunker built below th compound.

This tragic war was brought on by a person who believed that they were above the laws of their country and never had any intention of stepping down from power. It seems that Gbagbo could have saved many lives and and prevented much of the suffering that occured by not holding a general election. The conflict may have occured anyway but it would not have given the U.N. and Frace just cause to enter the conflict. Now because of the charrade that Gbagbo has played he will most definently be ousted and tried for the crimes he and his troops have committed. It has been an example of poor political manuvering.

Had Gbagbo conceded defeat initially he may have been offered a position in the new government. From here could have continued to influence the people of his party and the people of the Ivory Coast. When subsequent elections arrived in the future he may have had the chace to run again. Needless to say that will never happen after pulling his country into civil war. He will be lucky if he survives the assult on his palace and if he does he will most likely be forced into prision or exile. There has been speculation that even if he had surrendered before the violence escallated Gbagbo may have been able to escape prosecution. That will not be an option and he may choose death over prision. The country of the Ivory Coast as well as the world now wants justice and one way or another they will get it.

In my previous post I speculated that France would involve its military in the civil war taking place in the Ivory Coast. This speculation was confirmed by the Wall Street Journal on April 6, 2011. The Journal reported that France, who after being asked by the U.N. to intervene in the conflict, used helicopters to destroy an army barracks which held troops loyal to Gbagbo. This intervention was deemed necessary to stop the violence that may have persisted for weeks or months between the two sides.

Once again a western power is sticking their nose where it does not belong, although in this case I felt it was necessary. The people of the Ivory coast do not deserve to go on without water, food, power, and most importantly the safety of their children. It seems too much to ask for either side in this conflict to act with compasion for those with differing beliefs.

The Ivory Coast has hopefully turned the corner and will be able to move on from the past five months of turmoil. The people deserve to be in a better situation, one that they have a say in what happens, so that they may once again prosper.

Fighting Continues in The Ivory Coast

Picture courtesy of the BBC World News

The Ivory Coast, one of West Africa’s most developed and wealthy countries, has reached a point where civil war has taken root. Forces loyal to the newly elected president Alssane Ouattara have recently taken the capital city of Yamoussoukro. They are battling Laurent Gbagbo who refuses to step down as the leader of the country.

The Ivory Coast has been in a state of disarray since the failed presidential election in November, 2010. During this election the incumbant president by the name of Laurent Gbagbo was defeated by Alssane Ouattara. Although the U.N., the African Union, and the European Union all recognize Ouattara as the victor, Gbagbo refuses to give up the presidency. This has caused much turmoil and separation within the country. 

Map courtesy of the BBC World News

President Gbagbo believes that the elections in the north of the country were rigged and he does not recognize Ouattara as the new president of the Ivory Coast. He believes that the rebel group known as the New Force Rebels helped to rig the election. Gbagbo then used the Constitutional Council, which was headed by a loyal friend, to nullify the election and continue act as president.

There have been reports of both sides committing atrocious crimes against humanity. These crimes include rape, torture, murder, and burning people alive. At last count according to the United Nations 462 people have been killed. It has also been reported that teenagers have been armed by Gbagbo in order to replace soldiers that have defected to Ouattara.

The Ivory Coast is the worlds largest supplier of cocoa. At this point Ouattara has ordered his troops to push on to the port city of San Pedro. San Pedro is the countries largest exporter of cocoa. This will allow him to export goods and import supplies for his forces. If he is able to take this port, it would be a major advantage for his soldiers.

Image courtesy of the BBC World News

Photo courtesy of the BBC World News

This conflict has pushed this once prosperous country to an all out civil war. Some of the accounts of violence by both sides are enough to make your stomach turn. One incident involved a group of protesting women who were fired upon from Gbagbo tanks killing several of these women, including one who was pregnant. Seven of these women were killed  during a peaceful protest.  The protestors were asking Gbagbo why elections were held if he was only going to ignore the outcome? This group will not stop their protests in support of the democracy they so desperately desire.

Although it seems that violence was inevitable in this country it could have possibly been avoided. It is widely known that the Gbagbo forces were not much of an adversary. We have not received any reports of Gbagbo forces winning any of the battles in which they fought. This may have been due to the possibility that the Ouattara forces were aided by outsiders such as the French. While there are no official reports of this intervention France does have large economic interests in the country. It seems that economic pressures could have been placed on the ex-president forcing him to give up without going to war. Either way it seems that the sooner this conflict is resolved the better off citizens of this country will be.

At this point the country is divided between north and south, muslim in the north and christian in the south. There was a time where this division did not exist and the country prospered. At last count over one million people have fled the country and much of the prosperity has been lost. People are afraid to leave their homes and it is impossible to travel within the country without harassment for money to pass through checkpoints.

The leadership in The Ivory Coast needs to  realize that they are setting their country back drastically. This power struggle poses a threat of lasting turmoil in a country that was once considered the premiere nation in the area. This was at one point the model for economic development and religious tolerance for the area. I hope that they are able to return to their former status and put this conflict behind them.

Air Strikes Commence in Libya

On March 17, 2011 the U.N. Security council passed Libya UN Resolution 1973. This resolution calls for a ceasefire in Libya and created a no-fly zone over the country. The resolution also mandated a freeze on “all funds, other financial assets and economic resources” that are owned or controlled by Libyan authorities. The resolution was passed primarily to protect civilians from attack by the Gaddafi army.

Fighter Jet in Libya Courtesy of the BBC World News

The U.S. and its allies began their attacks from the air by crippling the air defence installations throughout the country. The main targets of these attacks were air defences but there are reports of missiles landing inside the Gaddafi compound. This coupled with a no-fly zone over the country has given the rebels a fighting chance. The strikes have also targeted military installations such as command centers as well as Gaddafi forces near the town of Benghazi where the rebels are pinned down. President Obama has declared that the U.S. will not deploy ground troops in an effort to oust the president and his regime. After saying that the U.S. has deployed marines to the area on battle ships so we will see if we will actually be able to stay away from putting troops on the ground.

These attacks have caused an ongoing debate as to whether the U.S. and its allies belong in this conflict.

Map of Libyan airstrikes courtesy of the BBC World News

The main reasons for the intervention were the reports of pro-Gaddafi forces attacking and killing citizens of Libya. This is controversial due to the fact that Libya is in the middle of a civil war. I do not side with Gaddafi by any means although it seems that he is trying to keep control of his country. This will undoubtably cause the death of civilians due to the fact that they are the ones opposing him.  So it is my contention that, yes, Gaddafi is a bad man and he should probably be ousted by his people. It is my opinion that the U.S. involvement is questionable. For one we really do not know who we are helping by crippling Gaddafi’s army. There are reports that many of his former military leaders and cabinet members have taken sides with the rebels. Do we really have proof that these people are pro-democracy? I am also not convinced that the rebels will prevail without direct U.N. (U.S.) involvement. Many experts have predicted a stalemate between the two sides and that this conflict could last a long time with a possibly of two different countries forming neither side is victorious.

I point to the fact that there is civil war and unrest across Africa and we choose to intervene into this particular fight. I understand that Libya’s proximity the mediterranean and European countries makes it a priority for the west. The western powers do not wish to have Gaddafi in power especially now that he is very upset with the our intervention into his country’s conflict. He has bombed a plane in the past as well as a night club in Germany. He is capable of terrorism and it would not surprise me if he attempted an attack if he is ousted from power. After the U.S. bombed his palace in the 1980′s he built a statue with a golden fist crushing an American Plane. This is an indication of his feelings toward the west and we must prepare for retaliation to these airstrikes.

Statue of American Jet being crushed

Will Protests Escalate in Saudi Arabia?

The unrest that has been sweeping across the Middle East has made its way to Saudi Arabia where protests have broken out in the eastern portion of the country. The Shia protestors are speaking out because of nine Shia prisoners that have reportedly been held for fourteen years without trial.  The protests escalated with the police forces firing over the heads of the protestors. There have also been reports of the use of stun-granades and physical abuse using batons where many of the protestors have been injured.

Saudi Arabia has been ruled by a strict monarchy since the 1930′s.  Currently they are ruled by King Abdullah who is in his eighty’s. It is illegal to demonstrate in the country and it seems that according to social networking sites there is a large demonstration planned for tomorrow, Friday March 11, 2011. It will be interesting to see how the government responds to the protests if they do occur. Recently, due to the growing unrest among the people of Saudi Arabia and the neighboring countries, King Abdullah has announced that thirty-seven billion U.S. dollars in benefits has been promised to the citizens. This includes a fifteen percent pay raise for government employees. While this is certainly a gesture of good faith it may not be enough to appease the Shia minority and keep them from protesting.

Saudi Arabia is one of the more developed countries in the region and they have benefitted from the wealth of oil reserves located beneath the desert. It is estimated that they can produce more than ten million barrels per day. This number is expected to increase in the future as more infrastructure is created.

The Shia minority is behind these recent protest and unlike Bahrain, Saudi Arabia has a Sunni majority. This fact along with the economic prosperity in the country leads me to believe that the demonstrations will not be as effective as they were in other countries. This does not mean that they will not affect the government. The citizens may realize that it is possible to force change and provide problems for the kingdom. Shia cleric Sheika Tawfiq al-Amer was detained for questioning the current system of government and calling for a constitutional monarchy. His detention outraged the Shia minority and some believe fueled their movement.

The Saudi government needs to be very careful on how they handle this opposition. While they obviously do not want to be overthrown, they cannot use excessive force or start jailing everyone the disagrees with the current system of government. Any killings or improper detainment could be the catalyst that set off a revolution. However unlikely revolution may be, the King must proceed with caution.

The current goverment needs to actively pursue a solution to this problem. It may be time to elect an advisory body to help assist the monarchy with decisions regarding the people. If the people felt that their needs and opinions were taken into consideration they may be less likely to cause protests and other problems for the government. Another issue they must resolve the prisoners being held without trial. This seems to be a major issue among the opposition and if the government needs to either set a trial date or release them. This would help to appease the Shia minority and show the country that they need not worry about being detained without cause.

The next few day and weeks promise to be interesting for the king and his government. Only time will tell what is to occur in the Kingdom. We know for certain the government in Saudi Arabia will be scrutinized by the world for their reaction to any type of protest or uprising.

Libya continues to struggle

As violence continues in Libya questions are circulating as to whether or not the west and NATO will intervene into this matter. Col Gaddafi has made claims that if international forces intervene it will cause the deaths of many Libyan citizens. This was stated while he prepares to defend his false democracy to the “last man and woman”. With major cities in the east already lost to rebel forces Col Gaddafi may get his chance to fight for himself soon enough. Some reports from the battlefield describe Gaddafi’s soldiers as not having their heart in the fighting.  Who can blame them for not wanting to kill their fellow countrymen for standing up to an oppressive government? A regime that punishes its citizens by not providing jobs and infrastructure needed to provide a high quality of life for the people of Libya.

This uprising has caused many of the people in Libya to flee to neighboring Tunisia. The UN reports that 75,000 people have already crossed the border and 40,000 more are waiting to cross.  This seems to support the fact that many Libyans are legitimately concerned for their well-being and would rather live in a refugee camp than stay at their homes in Libya. If these people had anything at all besides small possessions they would not be as willing to leave it all behind. It seems that the government that claims it gave the country to the people has in fact kept everything for themselves. 

This uprising and subsequent battles have spurred the World Food Program to put 38.7 million dollars in aid to benefit the estimated 2.7 million people affected by this uprising.  This, which I believe is a worthwhile humanitarian effort, should be paid for with oil revenue from the countries reserves.  This may seem harsh but somehow even the protestors have been able to send a tanker to China carrying 700 barrels of oil in the past week.  This is a tragic set of circumstances for most Libyan citizens yet somehow the oil keeps flowing, along with the blood.

Entering into this battle should not be taken lightly yet I feel that it has become necessary.  I am of the opinion that we cannot allow this to continue for many different reasons.  First I believe that the people of Libya are fighting for a voice in their government.  We have supported many horrible regimes in South America in the name of democracy. Not necessarily to promote democracy but to attempt to curb the spread of communism.  This would intervention would be in support of an actual democracy. Unfortunately it may create more resentment from the arab world and increase our reputation as being a bully with an unquenchable thirst for oil. It is my opinion that we would be doing the people of Libya a service by helping to stop the violence and create a representative government. 

Recently there have also been reports of crimes against humanity.  The worst of the accusations is the claim that Gaddafi supporters killed 257 people between February 15 and 20. If the current government is willing to commit crimes against their own citizens then we must come to the aid of those who are at risk of illegal detention or murder. The UN is charged with keeping oppressive rulers in check and if crimes against Libyans warrant intervention we cannot delay for the safety of innocent civilians is of great importance.  There investigations into possible opposition crimes against humanity as well. While western powers are hesitant to intervene they may not have a choice if the violence continues to escalate.

Whatever decision is made it seems that Col. Gaddafi will not go quietly and it seems that the violence in Libya is far from over.

Below is a picture representing the spread of opposition throughout the country.

Taken from the BBC website